Convenient Lies vs Inconvenient Truths: Why We Choose Fantasy Over Math
Issue 236, October 30, 2025
As we anticipate the end of a challenging year, we feel compelled to face up to some inconvenient truths that make us uncomfortable. We know that when we look “under the hood,” things don’t always look good. AI is buffering the market and making it look better than it is. Job creation is down, profits are up principally from price increases, and inflation remains very much of a very negative impact for everyone.
Not to alarm you, but here is a short list of the inconvenient truths that keep us up at night. Each of these macro issues has far-reaching ramifications for our society, economy, global community, and the health and well-being of our organizations.
The Magnificent 7: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla accounted for approximately 36% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 with a total value of $21 trillion. On the surface, most tech executives are relaxed, thinking that the market is doing well, watching it top all previous gains. But if 64% of all the other companies are decelerating, what does that say about the overall health of our economy?
Impending AI bubble: The high valuations of most AI research companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks and Perplexity AI) are based on speculation rather than profits, and the cost to finance data centers is a massive investment estimated between $3.7 trillion and $7.9 trillion globally through 2030. The promise for a better future is similar to when, in the late 90s and early 2000s, the dot-com boom grew on a similar promise that was never fully realized.
Energy to power AI is significant: training a large model like GPT-5 can use as much energy as 130 homes in a year, while a user’s single query on a model uses ten times more energy than a traditional Google search. Electricity costs are up, consumers are frustrated, those concerned about the environment are frantic about the potential consequences of more pollution and consumption of resources, yet AI is driving most of our economic activity. This impending energy crisis is going to trigger so many other challenges.
Asymmetrical US economy: The wealthiest Americans represent the top 10% of households and own nearly two-thirds of the nation’s total wealth. The top 1% own approximately one-third of the total wealth. That’s $49.4 trillion in net worth.
Robots: A 2025 Goldman Sachs report suggests that AI could replace the equivalent of up to 300 million full-time jobs across the US and Europe. Here’s a head start: Amazon announced it is replacing 600,000 US workers with robots by 2033.
Insecurities: In 2023, 47.4 million Americans lived in food-insecure households, which includes about 13.8 million children. This means approximately 1 in 7 people and 1 in 5 children experienced food insecurity. In January 2024, approximately 771,480 people were experiencing homelessness in the United States on a single night, an 18% increase from the previous year. This number is the highest recorded since data collection began in 2007. Connect this to the economic effects on low-wage workers that Amazon plans to eliminate in less than 10 years, and these numbers will only increase in scale and impact.
Education: The U.S. ranked 6th in reading and 26th in math out of 81 countries. It ranks 29th out of 100 countries for the digital skills of its workforce and 15th out of 44 for media literacy. Only 39% of the US population over 25 has a bachelor’s degree or higher. China’s rise in AI, technology and even sustainable energy sources has now overtaken any benchmarks the US has achieved.
Population: The US population is still growing, but at a much slower rate than in previous decades. The current growth is driven primarily by net immigration, not births. Those over 65 are expected to number 84 million by 2054, or about 23% of the U.S. population, with the overall population trending older due to increasing life expectancies and declining birth rates. According to the American Enterprise Institute, worker shortages, shrinking numbers of young consumers and a growing wave of elderly retirees relying on pension and health care systems could challenge basic assumptions about global capitalism. What are the future prospects for a nation losing its population?
Immigration: In 2025, U.S. immigration trends show a significant decline in the foreign-born population for the first time since the 1960s, dropping from its peak in early 2025 to late in the year. This decline is linked to a sharp drop in net international migration, which is predicted to slow economic growth. As immigration decreases, what does that mean for the continuation of innovation in the US? What does that mean for any organization relying on growth in its marketplace or entering a new market segment?
It takes resilience and determination to look honestly at the facts that are changing the shape of your organization and workforce, let alone America. Any organizational leader needs the discipline to manage inconvenient truths to provide the vision and steady strength to lead a workforce. Although these macro images seem daunting and have unintended consequences that can compromise a nation, they are bellwethers of foundational change. Understanding them, putting them into context for an organization’s growth, and being prepared for their consequences are essential management strategies.
The Ostrich Myth
Why do so many of us avoid dealing with these macro issues? The image of “burying your head in the sand” comes to mind. Deliberately ignoring an unpleasant reality or problem and pretending it doesn’t exist is more accurately understood as avoidance. And by the way, the expression comes from the false belief that ostriches bury their heads in the sand to escape danger. In truth, they dig holes for their nests and sometimes put their heads in them to rotte their eggs. There are no animals that bury their heads in the sand to avoid predators.
The popular saying is a substitute for ignoring problems, avoiding a difficult situation and hoping it will go away on its own, such as ignoring the loss of customers or diminishing revenues. It can also describe a “head-in-the-sand” approach where someone refuses to accept the truth about something uncomfortable, like an employee ignoring negative feedback from their boss.
Here’s a real-life issue many of us are experiencing today. Consider if you have turned away from the news, information sources or even difficult conversation topics with family and friends or around the conference table at work. That suppression doesn’t make the problems or difficult situations go away. Is ignorance bliss?
Avoidance at Costs
There is a more fundamental reason people avoid inconvenient truths. We resist looking deeply into things that make us uncomfortable to protect our psychological and emotional well-being. These strategies are known as psychological defense mechanisms and avoidance behaviors, and help reduce anxiety, discomfort, and threats to one’s sense of self. These unconscious mental processes protect the ego from excessive anxiety and distress. They are a normal part of functioning but can become problematic if used too rigidly or too often.
Here are the warning signals:
· Denial: Refusing to accept a threatening reality to avoid anxiety.
· Repression: Involuntarily blocking painful thoughts or memories from conscious awareness.
· Over-Intellectualization: Focusing on the abstract, factual, or logical aspects of a stressful situation to avoid the associated emotions.
· Rationalization: Justifying unacceptable behaviors or feelings with seemingly logical, but false, reasons.
Beyond the obvious defense mechanisms, people also use various cognitive strategies to steer away from uncomfortable thoughts or ideas, a process called “experiential avoidance.” For example, cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort experienced when holding two or more conflicting beliefs, values, or attitudes at the same time. To resolve the dissonance, a person might reject new information that challenges a deeply held belief rather than change the belief itself. Research shows that people will actively avoid information that conflicts with their core identity or self-perception. Uncertainty can be perceived as fear of the unknown and a threat, triggering anxiety and stress.
From an evolutionary perspective, humans are wired to conserve energy, and confronting deeply uncomfortable truths is a mentally and emotionally draining process. When the brain perceives a psychological threat—like a difficult truth about oneself—it can trigger the same stress response as a physical danger, preparing the body to either “fight” or “flee” from the information. Confronting uncomfortable feelings requires significant courage and vulnerability. It is often easier to take the path of least resistance by distracting oneself, remaining in a comfort zone, or embracing a more superficial way of life.
Finally, social factors also play a significant role. Looking deeply into uncomfortable issues, particularly about relationships or social standing, can present its own set of threats. People may resist introspection if they are worried about being judged by others or discovering that their authentic self might be rejected. People may also avoid confronting a difficult topic with a partner or loved one for fear of causing pain or conflict. This decision avoidance can, in fact, cause greater problems over time.
All these examples of avoidance show up in organizations on an ongoing basis. It is up to leadership to identify their own organizational inconvenient truths and work collaboratively with their workforce to reveal how these behaviors can undermine a team and undercut an organization.
Facing Fears
There’s a more positive, life-affirming alternative to avoidance. Examining the things that make you uncomfortable can lead to personal growth, deeper understanding, and social progress. While it’s human nature to avoid unpleasantness, leaning into discomfort is a powerful catalyst for positive change. Personal growth and self-awareness are strengthened by challenging status quo assumptions and looking at uncomfortable truths about yourself or your beliefs. Facing your fears forces you to confront flaws and biases you might prefer to ignore and builds mental and emotional strength. It allows you to develop resilience and coping mechanisms for future adversity. Remember, discomfort often masks underlying psychological and emotional fears, such as the fear of rejection, inadequacy, or judgment. By investigating the source of your discomfort, you can identify and address these fears.
We know intuitively that a deeper understanding of others builds empathy. Examining why a person or situation makes you uncomfortable can prevent you from unfairly judging them. For instance, a person’s behavior might trigger a subconscious negative association, but a deeper look might reveal their actions are shaped by their background or trauma. In relationships, avoiding difficult conversations often leads to resentment and misunderstanding. Leaning into the discomfort of open communication can strengthen bonds and foster true intimacy.
In our polarized society, facing inconvenient truths can improve social and ethical progress. Systemic issues like racism, sexism, and other forms of prejudice thrive when people avoid uncomfortable conversations and self-reflection. Progress requires facing these unpleasant truths. Authentic, deep connections with others require being vulnerable and honest. This means moving past surface-level pleasantries to discuss more difficult and meaningful topics.
Self-Awareness
We’ve all been in situations when addressing our inconvenient truths is painful. There are a few simple steps to help manage your feelings and mindset. Ask “why?” When you feel uncomfortable, ask yourself what about the person or situation is triggering that feeling. Look inward: Examine your own biases, fears, and assumptions to understand how they are contributing to your discomfort. Lean in, don’t run: Your instinct may be to avoid the situation or person entirely. Acknowledge this instinct but consciously choose to engage with the discomfort instead of fleeing from it. Practice self-reflection: Reflecting on your reactions and discoveries after the fact helps you to integrate what you’ve learned and build greater self-awareness.
We work with our clients to practice mindfulness and purposeful thinking when dealing with inconvenient truths. It’s not an Eastern philosophy platitude; it is a strategy with measured success in getting to the core of a problem instead of chipping away at the symptoms. It doesn’t look like external economic and political pressures are going to lighten up anytime soon. It’s impossible to be ready for the next disruption or challenge to the foundations of your beliefs and organizational principles, but you can be prepared. That calls on inner strength, shared purpose, resilience, empathy and determination to leverage inconvenient truths into strongholds of change and transformation for your organization, workforce, customers, and yourself. Only change endures, we live in a state of fluidity and flux, and facing inconvenient truths will set us free.
If you haven’t yet subscribed to the Human Factor Podcast, find it on your favorite podcast platform. Over the first 4 episodes, Kevin has covered frameworks and strategies to mitigate and contend/strategize around uncomfortable truths. It’s destination business strategy listening!
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Excellent analysis! This really builds on your earlier point about market decepction, highlighting the uncomfortable truths behind the AI buferred economy.