The Future Isn’t Going to Look Like You Think, 2040’s Ideas and Innovations Newsletter, Issue 91
Issue 91, January 19, 2023
Organizations founded on exponential growth are in for a wake-up call. In reverse-trend thinking, some experts believe that good enough is just good enough. Entrepreneurs believe that there are no limits to growth. What do we believe? It requires a deeper look at what is going on in our global population shifts to really understand future growth…or constriction. We wrote about this in our book, The Truth About Transformation, detailing the facts about the future population shift, re-sizing of markets, the demise of data point over generalizations, and the revelations of transformation hidden in plain sight.
Surprise, Surprise
Your market and workforce are going to look very different in the future. Demographic factors and variables must be considered in context of your own organization, whom your organization serves, and whom your organization employs. Stresses and tensions to find the right individuals with the right skills in a constantly evolving competitive environment are made even more complex by shifting and changing cultural attitudes and demographic shifts.
Consider the implications of the most significant demographic changes underway across the globe. Immigration, migration, changes in family structures, the changing role of women in the workforce, increasing mobility, declining birth rates, growing diversity, and generational shifts are just a few of the factors to watch and understand. Each of these megatrends relates to your current and future workforce and customer base, and should guide you in determining where your organization may be heading.
According to Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, authors of Empty Planet, the global population will peak around the middle of this century and then begin to decline especially in what we consider to be the most affluent places on the planet. According to the authors, Japan, Korea, Spain, Italy and much of Europe are facing long-term reproduction rates that won’t be able to sustain their current population levels.
The Future by the Numbers
According to Pew Research, “For the first time in modern history, the world’s population is expected to virtually stop growing by the end of this century, due in large part to falling global fertility rates.” According to the United Nations, by 2100, the world’s population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, and most of this growth will take place in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.
That means the world’s poorest countries have some of the fastest growing populations: the population of low-income countries, located mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected almost to double in size between 2020 and 2050, accounting for most of the global increase expected by the end of the century, says the UN. “Four of the 10 most populous countries in the world will no longer be among the top 10 in 2100 – and all four will be supplanted by rapidly growing nations in Africa, according to recently released population projections from the United Nations. Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico are among the world’s 10 most populous countries today. By 2100, they are projected to be overtaken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Egypt – none of which are currently in the top 10,” adds Pew. On the flip side, the biggest population loss by 2100 will be China with 374 million fewer people. These population shifts will affect each country’s economy, growth, healthcare, education, and prosperity.
These may seem like factoids that have little relevance to your daily life or business focused decision making but think about it: Eight of the top ten fastest growing populations will all be in Africa. The other two nations on the list are Pakistan and the United States, which are projected to see population gains of 182 million and 103 million people, respectively. The United States population growth is becoming more and more diverse changing long held perceptions of which race and ethnicity are in the majority. Projections by the UN are supported by the recent US Census and show that whites, Hispanics, and Asians will become nearly at parity.
The UN puts the population future more bluntly, “Sustained, rapid population growth adds to the challenge of achieving social and economic development and magnifies the scale of the investments and effort required to ensure that no one is left behind. Rapid population growth makes it more difficult for low-income and lower-middle-income countries to afford the increase in public expenditures on a per capita basis that is needed to eradicate poverty, end hunger and malnutrition, and ensure universal access to health care, education and other essential services. Lack of autonomy and opportunity among women and girls can contribute to high fertility and rapid population growth.”
World Shifts
The Truth About Transformation reveals how population shifts will run counterintuitively to popular belief. Awareness of population shifts is critical in planning for the future. Decreasing birth rates and overall changes in population impact organizations who rely on population growth for their growth across a marketplace and the needs of that increasing population for organizational growth.
For example, a deeper look at the world population reveals that there are two billion children in the world today aged 0-15, according to the UN, and that number is expected to remain constant in 2100. So, pause on that thought a moment. According to the Brookings Institute, a staggering 60% of Africa’s 1.25 billion people are under the age of 25, the youngest population in the world. The disconnect is that the median age of leaders in Africa is 62. Thione Niang, co-founder of Akon Lighting Africa states, “In many cases, the younger generation is more knowledgeable, equipped, and prepared to address the fast-moving issues of today than the establishment leadership. The generational showdown is hovering on the horizon.”
Global Disruption
Ibbitson and Bricker believe that a smaller global population will result in some real benefits: “Fewer workers will command higher wages; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women.”
They predict enormous disruption as well. Already in Europe and parts of Asia, “an aging population and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security.” Opportunity knocks for the innovators in wellness and healthcare services and products to serve the needs of an aging population and the institutions that serve them.